Month: August 2017

George Blackwell Cammann passes away August 15, 2017

George Blackwell Cammann, son of Katharine Blackwell and Frederic Almy Cammann, died peacefully on Tuesday, August 15th at home.

George was born on January 27, 1926 in New York City. After attending St. Marks School, he served as a Navy corpsman during WWII, and graduated from Cornell University (BMA’50). George spent the majority of his career at Pan American World Airways and a decade at Northwest Airlines. Upon retirement, he volunteered at IESC and Norwalk Hospital.

He actively served in the life of Noroton Presbyterian Church, including singing with his strong tenor voice in the choir in his later years. A member of the Tokeneke Club in Darien for 55 years, George was an enthusiastic competitor in his Sunfish on Long Island Sound or on the tennis courts. Equally at ease on alpine or nordic skis, George was noted for his skilled horsemanship at Elkhorn Ranch South in Arizona and Elkhorn Ranch Montana. His greatest pleasure came with good friends and tight lines fly fishing at Megantic, Potatuck, and on the Gallatin, Madison and Yellowstone Rivers.

George is survived by his wife of 64 years, Nancy Colway Cammann; his daughter Amy Cammann Cholnoky and her husband John of Darien, CT and Big Sky, MT; son Thomas Rhody Cammann and his wife Bonnie of Huntington Beach, CA; grandchildren JB, Kari, and Robbie Cholnoky, and Matthew (Andrea) and Sarah Cammann; and his brother Frederic Gallatin Cammann.

A memorial service will be held on Friday, September 1 at 11am, Noroton Presbyterian Church, Darien, CT. Contributions in George’s memory may be sent to Bennett Cancer Center, Stamford, CT or The Open Door Shelter, Norwalk, CT.
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October 19, 2017
Current Affairs Discussion:
Clean Disruption

In our first article Tony Seba makes the case that multiple technologies are converging that will massively disrupt the auto industry, use of space, transportation, energy, climate, … – all a big part of how we now live and work.   He calls it “Clean Disruption”.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0&feature=youtu.be

Our  discussion will review his model.  Are the assumptions valid?  Is the logic consistent and complete?  What other scenarios are possible?  Timing?  US vs ROW?  Politics and regulation? Business threats and opportunities?

 

McKinsey Studies:

An-integrated-perspective-on-the-future-of-mobility

Battery-storage-The-next-disruptive-technology-in-the-power-sector

The-new-economics-of-energy-storage

SRP_2014_Disruptive_Solar

WEF_Game_Changers_in_the_Energy_System

 

UK and France will ban ICE (internal combustion engine) autos by 2040:
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/26/world/europe/uk-diesel-petrol-emissions.html?mcubz=0&_r=0

Forbes: Volvo will stop designing ICE only cars by 2019. (They are not going all electric as some reported.)
https://www.forbes.com/sites/williampentland/2017/07/05/volvo-says-it-will-stop-designing-combustion-engine-only-cars-by-2019/

Forbes: What if everyone installed solar?
https://www.forbes.com/sites/quora/2017/01/16/what-would-the-economic-impact-be-if-everyone-installed-solar-panels/#7d8b38e734cc

When you reduce the number of moving parts in an engine from 2000 to 20, increase the efficiency and useful life of each auto, and eliminate truck drivers, then that is going to result in unemployment on a massive scale in the socio-economic classes that have already suffered from the widening income gap experienced over the past 30 years, and contributed to the election of Trump. Are our politicians capable of recognizing the consequences and bold enough to take action to offset the disappearing jobs? Given our current ineptitude in gaining consensus in Congress and the absence of forward vision from the White House I do not feel confident of the corrective means being devised and applied. Add to that the possible turmoil created by falling demand for oil from the Middle East, and we begin to approach the conditions for a perfect storm. Bryan Hooper.

What should the price be to sell electrons back price to the utility? It can’t be the retail cost of electricity because all the fixed costs remain. Fixed costs include the power station and transmission lines. The variable cost is just the cost of fuel. But for nuclear that variable fuel cost is zero.

So with residential roof top solar, a battery and a maybe back up generator – do you need to be on the power grid at all? If you are off the grid you can’t sell excess power, but do you owe the utility anything? (Note that you pay for sewers whether you are hooked up to them or not.) Do people dropping off lead to a death spiral as fixed costs of a universal power grid are spread over a shrinking customer base?
https://www.brookings.edu/research/rooftop-solar-net-metering-is-a-net-benefit/

Will electric cars break the grid?
https://cleantechnica.com/2016/05/11/will-electric-cars-break-grid/

From Bloomberg Businessweek:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-21/how-electric-cars-can-create-the-biggest-disruption-since-iphone

https://www.forbes.com/sites/energyinnovation/2017/09/18/the-future-of-electric-vehicles-in-the-u-s-part-2-ev-price-oil-cost-fuel-economy-drive-adoption/#56379bd4345c

http://auto.howstuffworks.com/are-electric-cars-cheaper-to-run.htm

Solar shingles: https://www.consumerreports.org/solar-panels/doing-the-math-on-teslas-solar-roof/

Dyson plans to build an electric car (or at least a street legal riding vacuum):

 https://www.forbes.com/sites/neilwinton/2017/09/26/dyson-british-vacuum-cleaner-plans-electric-car-assault-with-2-7-billion-plan/#7bd2e0c456a5

From Paul Williams: http://brook.gs/2fAZBmc

On the rapidly emerging technologies to improve electric storage: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/techtank/2015/09/15/five-emerging-battery-technologies-for-electric-vehicles/